ONE OF THE GREAT BLOCKBUSTER NIGHTS IN EUROS HISTORY BEFORE ENGLAND SEEK TO STUMBLE THROUGH
FULLKRUG, LIEBLING READ a headline after The Big Man scored his late equaliser for Germany against Switzerland in the group stages, which roughly translates as FULLKRUG, DARLING.
The nation’s love affair with their rugged, gap-toothed striker may be waning now, though, given the unintended consequences of that goal. Fullkrug’s goal meant Germany topped their group, whereas they would have finished second without it. Finishing second would have meant dropping into the easier half of another lopsided major tournament draw, and so rather than preparing to face a dazzling Spain in the quarter-finals, they’d be facing a spluttering England.
Germany and Spain have been the two outstanding teams of the competition so far, and it’s a mild travesty that they meet as early as a quarter-final. This would have been a fitting final.
Germany haven’t been perfect in the tournament so far, but they have shown an ability to find different answers to different problems. They pulled Scotland apart in the first game thanks to the combination of Kai Havertz’ darting runs in behind and Ilkay Gundogan, Jamal Musiala, and Florian Wirtz’ technical quality between the lines.
Against Denmark they showed a devastating threat in behind through Leroy Sane and Musiala, as the passing quality of Toni Kroos and Joshua Kimmich goaded Danish players into pushing up and leaving space in behind. And to add to that, Germany can be brutally effective in both boxes through Fullkrug and defensive warrior Antonio Rudiger.
But Spain will ask sterner questions than anyone has asked thus far. They have been the tournament’s outstanding team, winning all four games and conceding only once, an own goal in the last-16 win over Georgia.
Manager Luis de la Fuente is no tiki-taka ideologue: he has spoken in the past of his pride in his Catholicism and his love of bullfighting, and his football is a throwback to the La Furia Roja days. They play much more quickly and much more vertical, and wingers Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal have illuminated the tournament.
They did look a little vulnerable on the counter to Georgia, however, as did Germany against Switzerland and especially Denmark, before they locked down the latter game by shifting to a back three as soon as they went ahead.
This is an absurdly difficult tie to call, though Kroos is confident: while this may be the final game of his career, he says he doesn’t expect it to be. Germany’s home advantage may edge it for some intangible reason, though the team that scores first is likely to be the victor. Both sides keep the ball well enough to limit the other’s chances.
The winners will face either France or Portugal, who meet in Hamburg in one of the great blockbuster nights in this competition’s history. The Portuguese press have finally begun to turn on Cristiano Ronaldo, following his hysterical and utterly ineffective 120 minutes against Slovenia in the previous round. Roberto Martinez, however, will likely remain loyal to his man, despite the mounting evidence that they would be better off starting a striker who will serve the team, rather than the guy who expects it to be the other way around.
We are conditioned to France doing Just Enough to grind their way through tournaments but what we have seen thus far will not be anywhere near enough. France have yet to score from open play – the sum total of their tournament so far is a penalty and two own-goals – but Adrien Rabiot’s suspension may force Didier Deschamps to fix the team. The last-16 midfield trio of Rabiot, Kante, and Tchouameni was excessively negative even for Deschamps, with Antoine Griezmann shoved out to the wing to accommodate them. Returning Griezmann to the middle of midfield and picking a recognisable right-sided attacker may be the key to France’s rejuvenation.
Meanwhile, on the Easy Side. England continue to chug unimpressively along, though it sounds like Gareth Southgate is finally going to make some changes to his side for tomorrow’s clash with Switzerland.
The word from the England camp is that he is going to shift to a back three, which may see Trent Alexander-Arnold return as a right wing-back and Bukayo Saka shifted to the left. Starting both Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden more centrally – rather than allowing them drift in whenever they feel like it – may at least help them get out of each other’s way.
Southgate has form in this regard, though. He shifted to a back three at the previous Euros to match up Germany, who played the same system, albeit lamely. Switzerland are a much more coherent and impressive collective, with their left side extremely effective. Watch out for wing-back Michel Aebischer drifting into the centre of the pitch to create space for the overlapping Ricardo Rodriguez and the roaming Ruben Vargas, with Granit Xhaka primed to supply the right passes. Xhaka’s duel with Declan Rice will be an intriguing, Arsenal-slanted subplot.
It is a tricky tie for England, though hardly daunting. Unlike Germany, they have been rewarded for topping their group.
The winners will face the Netherlands or Turkiye in the last-four, who meet in a Berlin occasion that will be brimming with colour. The Dutch were distinctly unimpressive in their group, finishing third behind Austria and France, as Ronald Koeman continued to give the impression he neither knew his best team nor his best formation. Perhaps something clicked in the 3-0 win over Romania in the last-16, though regular Premier League viewers will tell you that Cody Gakpo’s goalscoring run is unsustainable.
Turkiye have channeled the furious emotion of their supporters to get this far, and while they spent the final half hour of the last-16 victory over Austria clinging on, their novel, back-three set-up – with teenage sensation Arda Guler playing at false nine- to get to that point was impressive. They will also have the benefit of the returning Hakan Calhanoglu in Berlin, having missed the Austrian game through suspension.
The 24-team format is bloated and stilted, but we have arrived at the serious end of this tournament. Let’s roll.
- Germany v Spain, Friday, 5pm (Prediction: Germany)
- France v Portugal, Friday 8pm (Prediction: France)
- England v Switzerland, Saturday, 5pm (Prediction: England)
- Turkiye v Netherlands, Saturday 8pm (Prediction: Netherlands)